The World Next Door

Executive Summary

Canada woke up the day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration in unfamiliar territory. Our closest neighbour and biggest trade partner for the past century suddenly decided that Canada was not, in fact, a friend—and that furthermore our trade agreements with them were not really binding. Whether and which tariffs come or go is impossible to predict at this point, but one thing has become clear: trust, that other important T word, has been shattered irreparably. 

Canada must now look beyond its borders, within its borders, and within itself. First and foremost, that means aligning our economy with the wider, friendlier world. 

Canada has trade agreements with 60% of the global economy, making us well positioned to lessen our reliance on U.S. markets. And as Clean Energy Canada’s analysis shows, among our 10 largest non-U.S. trade partners, all of them have net-zero commitments and carbon pricing systems, and roughly half apply carbon border adjustments on imports and have domestic EV requirements reshaping their car markets.

Taken together, these measures send a clear, unmistakable signal regarding where their economies are headed. Carbon border adjustments, for example, offer preferential access to low-carbon products from importing nations like Canada, while a carbon price and requirements for more EVs mean a market is weaning itself off fossil fuels. As more countries adopt these measures, demand for oil and gas will see a decline, while interest in clean energy imports and low-carbon products will only increase.

The global market for the top-six mass-manufactured clean energy technologies (solar PV, wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps) is set to rise from US$700 billion in 2023 to more than US$2 trillion by 2035—close to the value of the world’s crude oil market in recent years.

Canada’s opportunities are plentiful, significant, and realizable. A number of think tanks and business groups have analyzed and identified opportunities in Canada’s clean economy, including but not limited to clean electricity generation and transmission, critical minerals, EVs and batteries, low-carbon heavy industry, and value-added agricultural and forest products.

So, how does Canada map this vision onto reality?

The simple answer is to streamline Canada, connect Canada, buy Canada, and promote Canada.

In the case of streamlining Canada, the slightly longer explanation involves accelerating regulatory and permitting processes for clean growth projects, recognizing green collar worker credentials across provinces, and better aligning building, construction, and transportation codes.

Connecting Canada means investing in and accelerating the build-out of critical trade, energy, and transportation infrastructure, like road networks to remote mining sites and ports to growing markets. Now more than ever, it is time to enhance connections between provincial electricity systems. Prioritizing grid interties in strategic regions will enhance energy security, flexibility, and ratepayer affordability.

Buy Canada has quickly turned into a trendy phrase, but for policymakers the definition should include growing the market for Canadian products, supporting Canadian ownership, and helping emerging Canadian companies scale up. Governments can do this through consumer incentives for locally-made clean technologies, government procurement that favours low-emissions Canadian products, and interprovincial trade promotion.

Finally, shedding our northern humility, “elbows and chin up” should be our motto moving forward. Promoting Canada boils down to expanding and diversifying export opportunities while also incentivizing global companies to build here. Business parks and shovel-ready industrial lands, permitted and proximate to production networks and abundant clean electricity, are easy beacons for all manner of businesses. As is our clean electricity grid: we have already seen companies choose Canada in part for its low-cost, low-emissions power. Indeed, Canada should be marketing a “Clean Canada” export brand to both Canadians and the world.

This all may sound like a bold vision, but it is one with its feet firmly on the ground. Seizing the clean economic opportunity is not about starting over, but about leveraging pre-existing industries and advantages in a way that sets us up for a different future—and a destiny we write for ourselves.