Clean Energy Canada is a clean energy think tank at the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University. Through media briefs, we aim to provide useful factual and contextual information related to Canada’s clean energy transition. Please use this as a resource, and let us know if there are any topics that you would like to see for future media briefs.
A handful of influential B.C.-based organizations and commentators have made claims about B.C.’s energy system this past year that we believe are misinformed and likely to mislead British Columbians. To set the record straight, Clean Energy Canada is releasing a special media brief to respond to four consequential myths we’ve seen appear over and over again.
Claim: Deploying EVs and heat pumps will overwhelm our energy grid, and therefore governments should undo efforts to support EVs and heat pumps.
Fact: Electricity demand for EVs is very manageable, while heat pumps greatly improve energy efficiency.
- Electricity demand for EVs is manageable
- BC Hydro estimates that current EV sales requirements will increase electricity demand by 2% in 2030, consistent with other global forecasts. This is based on 421,000 EVs on the road in 2030 and compliance with the provincial EV sales requirements between now and 2030. For comparison, the number of EVs on the road in B.C. was around 90,000 in 2022.
- A Canadian government study on the anticipated electricity needs of EVs found that they would represent 3%, 16%, and 22% of electrical power demand in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. As the study states, “This number is significant, but since the growth is spread over 30 years, with most happening during the 2030 to 2050 timeframe, Canadian utilities have 10 years to refine the load forecast and plan for grid expansion.”
- A recent U.S. study by Consumer Reports found that even if EVs accounted for 100% of new vehicle sales by 2035, it would take until 2050 for almost all vehicles on the road to be electric. Accounting for increases in kilometers driven in 2050, if all vehicles driven were electric, electricity demand would need to increase by 26% compared to current electricity demand, meaning that meeting this new electricity demand for passenger EVs will only require about 1% per year growth in electricity production, well below the 3.2% average annual growth rate for the electricity generation over the past 70 years in the U.S.
- EVs can contribute to grid capacity and reliability
- While most current EVs are unidirectional, meaning that they only take power from the grid, EVs have the ability to also do the opposite and improve grid reliability when they are used as batteries that utilities can draw from in times of need.
- In fact, there are vehicles for sale today, including Ford’s F-150 Lightning (extended range) and GM’s Chevrolet Silverado EV First Edition RST, that are bidirectional, meaning they can both send and receive power to the home (called vehicle-to-home) or to the grid in conjunction with a participating utility (called vehicle-to-grid).
- The Baltimore Gas and Electric Company already has an operating vehicle-to-grid pilot program up and running in partnership with Ford and Sunrun to deliver power to owners’ homes during peak demand times in summer to support Maryland’s power grid.
- PG&E is offering California customers under their Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) program the opportunity to earn incentives by sending electricity to the grid from their EVs in times of peak demand.
- The city of Oakland, California, is converting its 74 school buses to vehicle-to-grid capable electric buses that will be able to provide 2.1 GWh back to the grid annually, enough to power 400 homes for a year.
- Bidirectional charging is expected to become much more widespread in the coming years. In August 2024, California passed a law that gives the California Energy Commission the powers to require “any weight class” of battery-electric vehicles to have vehicle-to-grid charging capabilities.
- Heat pumps can lower grid demand
- Heat pumps use significantly less electricity than electric baseboard heating, lowering grid demand and saving money for the 40% of B.C. households heating their homes this way.
- A heat pump is also three to five times more energy efficient overall than a natural gas furnace, resulting in less electricity demand than some commenters have assumed. In fact, a new Clean Energy Canada report shows that a typical B.C. household living in a detached house which transitioned from a natural gas furnace to a heat pump would be expected to save $570 a year (including equipment costs and rebates).
- There are additional steps utilities are taking to improve grid reliability and stability that will reduce future demand
- Currently, B.C. and Ontario offer time-of-use rates to incent customers to operate appliances, including EVs and heat pumps, during off-peak hours to help balance electrical loads across the grid. BC Hydro has an option to subscribe to a 5 cent per kWh discount for power usage between 11 pm and 7 am with a corresponding 5 cent per kWh surcharge between 4 pm and 9 pm. Ontario offers an ultra-low overnight rate of 2.8 cents per kWh between 11 pm and 7 am. For contrast, the on-peak rate is 28.6 cents per kWh between 4 pm and 9 pm.
- Analysis commissioned by Ontario’s Independent Energy System Operator found that distributed energy resources (DERs), such as smart thermostats or using your EV to provide power to the grid, are able to satisfy a material portion of the province’s energy needs, from 1.3 to 4.3 GW of peak summer demand by 2032.
- In the coming years, households are set to evolve from energy customers to both customers and providers of electricity. We see early indications of this in B.C. with the government’s June 2024 announcement of grid-tied household solar and battery storage incentives.
Claim: Importing electricity from other jurisdictions drives up costs and means B.C. can’t meet its own demand for electricity.
Fact: B.C. both imports and exports electricity, a practice that keeps rates lower for consumers.
- B.C. benefits significantly from electricity trade with its neighbours. Importing and exporting electricity helps us manage our system in a manner that keeps rates more affordable for customers. Over the last decade and a half, B.C. was a net importer in seven years and a net exporter in the other eight (including during the period from 2019 to 2023).
- With more of our partners deploying larger quantities of cheap renewables—and generating a surplus of energy at certain times of the day—B.C. is able to buy power when prices are low, helping conserve water in our reservoirs for periods of high demand, like during the winter months.
Claim: B.C. doesn’t have enough electricity to meet its climate commitments.
Fact: BC Hydro has taken a number of steps to ensure it’s bringing online the resources it requires.
- In January, BC Hydro announced its intention to invest $36 billion over the next 10 years to support the growth of B.C.’s electricity system, a 50% increase in planned spending compared to 2023.
- Additional capacity is being brought online through Site C, which will be operational in 2025 and add 8% to B.C.’s grid capacity. The most recent 2024 BC Hydro call for power will add another 5% capacity to the province’s electricity grid, starting in 2029.
- In September 2024, BC Hydro announced it had received 21 proposals from independent power producers representing three times the amount of electricity generation needed in its call for power, indicating that a strong pipeline of projects exists in B.C. to meet growing demand.
Claim: Renewables like wind and solar can’t provide the reliable power B.C. needs as electricity demand grows.
Fact: Renewables are extremely cost-competitive, work in tandem with other technologies, and are already being used successfully at scale in other countries.
- Wind and solar globally are the cheapest sources of power. An analysis from Clean Energy Canada found that solar and wind with battery storage are set to produce cheaper electricity than natural gas in Alberta and Ontario, and this trend is expected to be similar for B.C.
- While wind and solar are variable resources, solutions are available to complement them, from batteries and dispatchable power, to stronger grids and interconnections, to technological demand-side measures (i.e. storing and sending power where and when it’s needed). These options can enable relatively high shares of wind and solar on a grid.
- A look at other countries around the world offers plenty of examples of high wind and solar shares, such as 67% in Denmark, around 40% in Germany and the Netherlands, and 28% in Australia. In a scenario where Canada achieves a net-zero economy by 2050, wind and solar would be responsible for only 30% to 40% of required electricity production, less than some countries produce today.
- The state of South Australia–almost identical in size to B.C. with a smaller population—saw 75% of its electricity needs met by solar and wind energy in 2023, while the state is hoping to achieve a 100% renewable-powered grid by 2027.
